Hubbert peak theory An oil production curve, as originally suggested M. King Hubbert in 1956. Global production peak as Hubbert. According to ASPO would have been a delay of about 10 years compared to Hubbert’s original estimates. The Hubbert peak theory, also known as peak oil, peak oil or oil depletion, is an influential theory about the rate of long-term depletion of oil and other fossil fuels. He predicts that world oil production will reach its peak and then decline as fast as it grew, highlighting the fact that the limiting factor for oil extraction is the energy required and no economic cost. Yet still controversial, this theory is widely accepted among the scientific community and the oil industry.The debate centers on whether there will be a peak oil but when it will happen, since it is clear that oil is a finite and nonrenewable short time scales so that at one time or another will reach the limit of extraction . This depends on the possible discovery of new reserves, increasing efficiency of existing fields, deep extraction or exploitation of new forms of unconventional oil. The exact year of peak can not be determined until it has happened. Based on current production data, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO in English), believes that peak oil will occur in 2010, the natural gas some years later. On the contrary, more optimistic estimates show reserves for at least 100 years.This implies important consequences for developed countries, which rely heavily on cheap oil and abundant, especially for transportation, agriculture, chemical industry and domestic heating. The theory is named after the geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted the peak of U.S. production with fifteen years in advance. Much of the oil industry and automobile claims that Hubbert’s theory is false or, at least, the ignored and hidden. Some critics Economists say the shortages motivate the search for new discoveries and that stocks will rise above what Hubbert predicted. But even in the more optimistic the limitation of oil resources puts a deadline on the cheap extraction of that resource. Nobody seems to deny the existence of a production ceiling but few governments and companies so far have mentioned openly.Among these include the American multinational ChevronTexaco who have launched recently, the ad campaign to educate the American public of the need to act before the impending oil depletion. Also recently the Spanish multinational Repsol-YPF has spoken publicly at a conference of the issue using the same graphics of ASPO. The arrival of the peak of extraction suggests a bleak future in which mankind will have to survive without the main source of energy that has made it grow and prosper throughout the twentieth century. Supertanker AbQaid A growing number of experts believe the peak of production, in fact, has already arrived. After Hurricane Katrina, admitted that Saudi Arabia can not increase production to ease the crisis by losses in production and refining suffered in the Gulf of Mexico. Many think that this is the start of the final crisis of oil.Final because it will last and that will require adjustments and make the biggest cuts in consumption as never done before. But the crisis is not confined to oil. Natural gas is also in thepast in many places and peak production will not happen long after the oil. Still, it is expected that in the absence of these resources to start exploiting the methane deposits in coal seams.
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